Analyse UGM du 01/11
voici l'analyse pour le début de semaine d'UGM
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UGM Trading Desk
EUR: The Euro is again testing one month highs, seemingly unphased by worse than expected German retail sales. The market mover has clearly been the weak USD, and weak Chicago PMI data. Today the EURUSD is back where we started this morning as weaker than expected ISM data was apparently priced into the market. Two interesting pairs to watch are the EURYEN & EURGBP crosses. EURYEN came off a 5 year high of 150.80 at the end of last week and bounced of 149 the figure yesterday. The EURGBP cross has been testing recent lows, we’ll be looking for Euro Zone and BoE data to see if this is a short term
movement or the start of a longer term trend. For the rest of the week we’ll be watching German Unemployment, Manufacturing PMI, Interest Rate Statement and a speech by Trichet, all expected tomorrow (11/02). Friday, watch for Euro Zone Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m, and unemployment rate.
USD:. The Greenback has been treading lightly on one month lows following a slew of bad economic data. Today the ISM Manufacturing data came in at 51.2 lower than expectations, and the lowest in 3 years. The market changed little on the much worse than expected data, which we believe the market has expected. Of note is the seeming inverse relationship between the price of Gold vs. the USD. As the price of Gold has been increasing, the value of the USD has been declining. We will be watching this relationship in the near future as an indicator. Tomorrow we’ll be watching for Nonfarm Productivity m/m, Unit Labor Costs q/q, Unemployment Claims and Factor Orders m/m. On Friday we’ll be looking for Nonfarm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m ISM non-Manufacturing Index numbers. Also of note is that the Dallas Fed President will be speaking Thursday,followed by Fed Governor Bies, and by Kohn and Kroszner on Friday.
GBP: Yesterday, MPC Governor King repeated that the MPC was keeping a close eyte on pricing behavior of firms. Further rises in output prices will remain an ongoing concern for the BoE. Early this morning British Manufacturing PMI data came in slightly worse than expected, serving only as a speed bump for
YEN: After the USDYEN hi the lowest level since the end of September over night, the pair traded in a range before US ISM data. We saw a quick decline followed by an equally quick rebound putting the cross back to trading in the band. In spite of far weaker than expected Japanese Unemployment, Household spending, and average cash earnings, the BoJ Governor Fukui’s press conference remarks were received as hawkish. With a Japanese holiday tomorrow, we’ll be watching moves in the EUR and USD, and the development of the North Korean situation as market movers.
CHF: USDCHF is touching one month lows on weak economic data unphased by weaker than expected Swiss PMI numbers released yesterday. Tomorrow we’ll be watching for CPI m/m data.
Bons Trades
Larry