Minutes FOMC de la réunion du 10 Mai.
Voici quelques extraits des minutes de la réunion de la FOMC:
At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points, to 4¾ percent. In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that the slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seemed largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth had rebounded strongly in the first quarter but seemed likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appeared to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains had helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations had remained contained. Still, the Committee noted that possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, had the potential to add to inflation pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee judged that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance, but reiterated that in any event the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives.
The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar against major foreign currencies fell since the March meeting. Increased focus in public debate on the risks posed by the large U.S. external imbalance appeared to erode investor support for the dollar.
Most participants expected that, after allowing for some possible near-term volatility related to the recent jump in energy and other commodity prices, core inflation would probably remain around the levels experienced on average over the past year. However, recent developments suggested that upside risks to inflation had risen somewhat since the time of the March meeting.
Data on economic growth outside the United States indicated that the global expansion was firming, a sense amplified by reports from international contacts. The apparent strengthening of global growth was likely to support U.S. exports and economic activity and would also tend to maintain upward pressures on energy and commodity prices.
However, participants also cited some factors that could be expected to restrain inflation. Although alternative measures of labor compensation provided divergent readings, growth of total compensation on balance appeared to remain moderate. And, even if nominal wages should accelerate somewhat, relatively wide profit margins could buffer the effect on prices of final goods and services. While firms would seek to maintain those margins, recent experience suggested that this might be accomplished in part through further productivity gains, which had remained fairly strong on balance in recent quarters, rather than through more rapid price hikes.
Still, it seemed most likely that, with modest further policy action, including a 25 basis point firming today, growth in activity would moderate gradually over coming quarters, pressures on resources would remain limited, and core inflation would stay close to levels experienced over the past year.
Given the risks to growth and inflation, Committee members were uncertain about how much, if any, further tightening would be needed after today's action. In view of the risk that the outlook for inflation could worsen, the Committee decided to repeat the indication in the policy statement released after the March meeting that some further policy firming could be required. However, the Committee agreed to emphasize that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information." Members debated the appropriate characterization of inflation expectations in the statement. Low and stable inflation expectations were key to the attainment of the Committee's dual objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable economic growth
"The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives."
A+
Larry
At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points, to 4¾ percent. In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that the slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seemed largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth had rebounded strongly in the first quarter but seemed likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appeared to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains had helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations had remained contained. Still, the Committee noted that possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, had the potential to add to inflation pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee judged that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance, but reiterated that in any event the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives.
The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar against major foreign currencies fell since the March meeting. Increased focus in public debate on the risks posed by the large U.S. external imbalance appeared to erode investor support for the dollar.
Most participants expected that, after allowing for some possible near-term volatility related to the recent jump in energy and other commodity prices, core inflation would probably remain around the levels experienced on average over the past year. However, recent developments suggested that upside risks to inflation had risen somewhat since the time of the March meeting.
Data on economic growth outside the United States indicated that the global expansion was firming, a sense amplified by reports from international contacts. The apparent strengthening of global growth was likely to support U.S. exports and economic activity and would also tend to maintain upward pressures on energy and commodity prices.
However, participants also cited some factors that could be expected to restrain inflation. Although alternative measures of labor compensation provided divergent readings, growth of total compensation on balance appeared to remain moderate. And, even if nominal wages should accelerate somewhat, relatively wide profit margins could buffer the effect on prices of final goods and services. While firms would seek to maintain those margins, recent experience suggested that this might be accomplished in part through further productivity gains, which had remained fairly strong on balance in recent quarters, rather than through more rapid price hikes.
Still, it seemed most likely that, with modest further policy action, including a 25 basis point firming today, growth in activity would moderate gradually over coming quarters, pressures on resources would remain limited, and core inflation would stay close to levels experienced over the past year.
Given the risks to growth and inflation, Committee members were uncertain about how much, if any, further tightening would be needed after today's action. In view of the risk that the outlook for inflation could worsen, the Committee decided to repeat the indication in the policy statement released after the March meeting that some further policy firming could be required. However, the Committee agreed to emphasize that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information." Members debated the appropriate characterization of inflation expectations in the statement. Low and stable inflation expectations were key to the attainment of the Committee's dual objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable economic growth
"The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives."
Votes for this action: Messrs. Bernanke and Geithner, Ms. Bies, Messrs. Guynn, Kohn, Kroszner, Lacker, and Olson, Ms. Pianalto, Mr. Warsh, and Ms.Yellen.
Votes against this action: None.
A+
Larry
Publicité