Trade du 09 mai

Bonjour,

trade du jour:


USDJPY:  Vente au passage des 110.95 Stop 111.45  1er Objectif: 110.20 (objectif révisable après FED et FOMC)

GBPUSD: Toujours placé depuis 1.8560 . Stop maintenant à 1.8610. 1er objectif 1.8740
Sur l'intraday, on pourrait tenter le breakout sur 1.8690 ( plus haut d'hier) en direction de 1.8740.

Je reste à l'écart de l'EURUSD.

Info:
World Bank revises up China GDP growth to 9.5.


A+

Larry

Comments

[LarryMax]

résultat du trade donc:
1.8560 stoppé à 1.8610 soit +50 pips
Pour être totalement précis, comme je le disais sur le blog de Gajelo, le trade de breakout était à jouer seulement si on pouvait être là pour stoper tôt.
Perso je ne l'ai pas placé en réel car pas devant l'écran.
On a quand même été touché,avec le passage des 1.8690, les 1.8730.
A+
Larry

[Larrymax]

Je le crois pas ....on est venu toucher juste mon stop ou quoi ...(sur GBPUSD)J'ai pas ma cotation précise mais il semble bien qu'on est venu rebondir sur ce support ...1.8610 .
L'envie de rentrer est forte ...justement c'est là qu'il ne faut pas craquer. Evidement qu'il est rageant de voir le cours repartir à la hausse juste sur le stop placé mais le coté positif est que la précision de mes points est confirmé.Je préfère donc rester à l'écart pour l'instant.
Les économistes pointus que vous êtes n'auront pas manqué mon erreur sur la statistiques porincipale en UK.
En effet il ne s'agissait pas su GDP mais bien sûr de la balance commerciale qui est ressortie meilleure que prévue à 5.5 au lieu de 6.2.
Et c'est le rapport sur l'inflation de la banque d'Angleterre qui a secoué un peu le marché. (je ne l'ai pas encore lu en détail)
Je vous mets le résumé ci dessous:
Over the past six months, output growth has recovered to near its long-term average rate and surveys point to further strengthening. Household consumption growth seems to have slowed in the first quarter. Business investment has been weak, but surveys suggest that a pickup is in the offing. And demand growth in the main UK export markets looks to have firmed. In the Committee’s central projection, under the assumption that official interest rates follow a path implied by market yields, GDP growth remains close to its historical average.
With unemployment continuing to rise, pay pressures remained muted. But energy prices rose further and import price inflation picked up. CPI inflation edged down to 1.8% in March. In the central projection, inflation moves above the 2% target in the near term and then drops back to around the target. The risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced.
Domestic demand
Consumers’ expenditure recovered through 2005 as real post-tax labour income growth picked up. Retail sales fell back in the first quarter, suggesting only moderate growth in total consumption, though surveys indicate that retail spending may have picked up since. Real incomes are likely to be squeezed in the near term by higher utility prices and taxes, but past increases in equity prices and the continuing revival in the housing market should provide some offsetting support to consumption. Overall, household expenditure is projected to grow at a little below its post-war average.
Recent outturns for government spending have been slightly stronger than anticipated, while the level of planned spending for future years was marginally reduced in the Budget. Together, these imply that the public sector will make a diminished contribution to demand growth over the forecast period.
Official estimates suggest that business investment weakened in the fourth quarter. Capital expenditure is reported to have been relatively subdued in the past couple of years, despite buoyant corporate cash flow, falling capital goods prices and a low cost of finance. That may reflect some combination of muted demand prospects, increased uncertainty following the rise in energy costs, the diversion of internal finance to reduce pension fund deficits and the allocation of capital spending overseas. It is also possible that the present vintage of data may underestimate spending over this period. Recent survey indicators suggest that a modest pickup in business investment may be in prospect.
External demand and net trade
Despite the drag from high oil prices, the global economy continued to expand at a robust pace, with signs that a more even pattern of growth may be developing. Although output growth in the euro area faltered at the end of 2005, business surveys point to a pickup in the first part of this year, underpinned by recovery in Germany. Following a weak fourth quarter, GDP growth in the United States rebounded in Q1 and is likely to moderate to around trend for the rest of the year. The revival in Japan continued and vigorous expansion in the rest of Asia was maintained. Possibly reflecting the continuing strength in global growth, long-term real interest rates edged up, though they remained low by historical standards. The Committee expects strong growth in world trade to be sustained over the forecast period.
Net trade made a broadly neutral contribution to UK output growth in 2005. Intense competition from low-cost producers in Asia and Eastern Europe is likely to continue to bear down on the market share of UK exporters and to raise import penetration. But robust global growth will stimulate exports and recent surveys suggest that foreign orders have picked up. Overall, net trade is expected to provide a modest boost to UK GDP growth over the forecast period.
The outlook for GDP growth
Following a soft patch at the start of 2005, output growth has recovered to around its long-term average. In the first quarter, GDP is provisionally estimated by the ONS to have increased by 0.6%, the same as in the previous quarter. Manufacturing output picked up and business services remained buoyant, but sectors more dependent on consumption slowed. Business surveys point to a strengthening of growth in the second quarter.
Under the assumption that official interest rates follow a path implied by market yields, the MPC’s central projection is for output to continue rising steadily at a rate close to its historical average. Steady growth in consumer spending, a modest recovery in investment and a small boost from net trade offset slower growth in public expenditure. Chart 1 shows the resulting outlook for four-quarter GDP growth, which continues to edge up in the near term as the period of weak growth in 2005 drops out of the annual comparison. The profile is slightly weaker than in February.





Chart 1Current GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations

Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today's were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC's best collective judgement is that GDP growth over the subsequent three years would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of GDP growth are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areas on 10 occasions. Consequently, GDP growth is expected to lie somewhere within the entire fan chart on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on pages 48-49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.





Costs and prices
Business surveys and reports from the Bank’s regional Agents suggest that capacity pressures within firms eased during 2005, but there are signs that these have troughed. The labour market has also slackened over the past year, with an easing in employment growth and an increase in labour force participation leading to a modest rise in unemployment. However, surveys of employment intentions suggest that this period of loosening may soon be at an end.
Energy prices have risen further. Spot oil prices touched a record high, partly reflecting disruptions to production in Nigeria and concerns about potential supply in the Middle East. The futures curve suggests that oil prices may remain elevated into the medium term. Wholesale gas prices have been volatile since the February Report, and remain somewhat higher than a year ago. Although efforts to increase the capacity to supply gas to the domestic market are under way, the short-term prospect for gas prices remains uncertain.
There is little sign yet that the past increases in energy prices have led to greater pay pressures. Settlements edged down and regular pay growth was flat, though other labour costs rose, partly as a result of increased pension contributions. But surveys suggest that the public’s inflation expectations moved up, possibly prompted by the announcement of higher prices for domestic energy.
Import price inflation rose to its highest rate for five years, reflecting both the impact of higher energy prices and increased global capacity pressures. If oil prices stabilise, then import price inflation can be expected to fall back.
CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target in recent months, easing slightly to 1.8% in March. The latest increases in energy prices are likely to push inflation back above the target in the short term. The extent to which the presently subdued rate of inflation in the non-energy components of the CPI will persist once the temporary influence from higher energy prices abates remains a source of considerable uncertainty.
The outlook for inflation
Chart 2 shows the Committee's assessment of the outlook for CPI inflation, also assuming that official interest rates move in line with market yields. Under the central projection, inflation rises in the near term, reflecting higher energy and import costs. As energy and import price inflation ease, so CPI inflation falls back to around the 2% target. Compared with February, the profile is higher in the first part of the projection and similar thereafter. Some members judge that the central projection is a little higher; others that it is a little lower.
As usual, there are substantial risks surrounding the central projections. These include, in particular: the outlook for spending by households and businesses; the prospects for world activity; the evolution of energy and import prices; the extent of wage and price inertia; and the margin of spare capacity. There is a range of views among members, but the Committee judges that, relative to the central projection, the overall risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced.





Chart 2Current CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations

Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for CPI inflation in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today's were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC's best collective judgement is that inflation over the subsequent three years would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan charts are constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 10 occasions. Consequently, inflation is expected to lie somewhere within the entire fan chart on 90 out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasing uncertainty about outcomes. See the box on pages 48-49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.





The policy decision
At its May meeting, the Committee noted that the central projection under market rates was for output growth to remain close to its long-term average and for inflation to settle around the target in the medium term. In the light of this outlook, and bearing in mind the balance of risks, the Committee judged that no change in the repo rate was necessary to keep inflation on track to meet the target in the medium term.